Ethiopian federal troops and Tigray forces linked to the TPLF, along with military equipment, have been building up in and around the Tigray region and the border with Eritrea, prompting renewed fears of armed conflict. The military concentration represents a significant escalation and has alarmed observers monitoring the region. Direct clashes between Tigrayan forces and the federal army broke out again in late 2025, marking the first such clashes since the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that was intended to end the broader Tigray war.
The pattern of drone strikes in 2026 has further raised tensions. According to reporting at the time, a drone strike killed one person in Tigray in late January 2026. In June 2026, drone strikes hit an area in southern Tigray near Merewa, close to the Amhara regional border, according to the TPLF. The strikes targeted locations near the shared regional boundary, a sensitive area where tensions have mounted. Another reported drone strike hit the Tekemati area near Sheraro town in northwestern Tigray, beginning around 11:30pm and continuing for nearly two hours, according to local reports. The extended duration and nighttime timing suggested a sustained military operation.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, wartime allies during the Tigray war, have fractured since the fighting ended. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of occupying Ethiopian territory along their shared border and of supporting armed groups operating in the region. Eritrea has rejected these accusations. The rift reflects deeper strategic divergence. Eritrea has reportedly grown alarmed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's public statements about Ethiopia's need for access to the Red Sea, a development that has raised questions about Eritrea's view of Ethiopia's stated ambitions.
Recent developments in early August underscore the volatile and shifting nature of regional alignments. On August 1, 2026, an attempted incursion originating from Sudanese territory near a location called Sherarina, attributed to TPLF-aligned forces, was reportedly repelled by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces within hours. The swift response highlighted ongoing military tensions across the region. Just two days later, on August 3, 2026, senior military and political figures from both the TPLF and Eritrea's ruling PFDJ party reportedly met in the border town of Zalambessa. The meeting was noteworthy given the broader tensions, and some observers said the development points to evolving, shifting alliances in the region as parties recalculate their strategic positions.
Key provisions of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement have never been implemented, according to observers monitoring compliance. These include the return of people displaced by the war and the disarmament of TPLF forces. The failure to implement these measures has left the underlying grievances and military imbalances that fueled the original conflict essentially unresolved more than three years after the agreement was signed.
Some analysts and at least one intelligence-focused report have warned of the risk of false-flag operations in the region. These are contested, unverified claims from analysts, not confirmed events, and the possibility remains speculative. The warnings reflect concerns among some observers that parties might conduct operations attributed to others in order to provoke broader conflict.
